The Local Forecast: Predicting Weather and Orthopaedic Trauma Volume

Abstract

Background: Orthopaedic trauma volume has been shown to vary with local weather patterns. Despite well-documented trends, there is still a volume-to-staffing mismatch at many institutions during high-demand periods. This review synthesizes existing literature alongside a retrospective study published in 2025 on the relationship between weather patterns and orthopaedic trauma volume at a Level 1 trauma center in the Northeast.

Methods: This is a narrative review of a retrospective study that analyzed orthopaedic trauma volume and local weather patterns during a one-year period from July 1, 2022 to June 31, 2023 in both adult and pediatric patients treated at Albany Medical Center. The data from this study was compared to existing literature and used to develop a hospital staffing model.

Results: Orthopaedic trauma volume and injury acuity is highest during summer months, warmer temperatures, and non-rainy days. Traditional hospital staffing models do not account for temporal fluctuations in orthopaedic trauma volume.

Conclusion and Implications: Orthopaedic trauma volume in the Northeast is driven primarily by warm, dry weather conditions. Local weather forecasts can be used to predict high-volume days in advance and proactively allocate more hospital staff and resources.