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COVID-19 pandemic in India: a mathematical model study

The present novel coronavirus (SARSCoV-2) infection has created a global emergency situation by spreading all over the world in a large scale
within very short time period. But there is no vaccine, anti-viral medicine for such infection. So at this moment, a major worldwide problem is that how we can control this pandemic. On the other hand, India is high population density country, where the coronavirus
infection disease (COVID-19) has started from 1 March 2020. Due to high population density, human to human social contact rate is very high in India. So controlling pandemic COVID-19 in early stage is very urgent and challenging problem of India. Mathematical models are
employed to study the disease dynamics, identify the influential parameters and access the proper prevention strategies for reduction outbreak size. In this work, we have formulated a deterministic compartmental model
to study the spreading of COVID-19 and estimated the
model parameters by fitting the model with reported
data of ongoing pandemic in India. Sensitivity analysis
has been done to identify the influentialmodel parameters.
The basic reproduction number has been estimated
from actual data and the effective basic reproduction
number has been studied on the basis of reported cases.
Some effective preventive measures and their impact have also been studied. Prediction are given on the
future trends of the virus transmission under some control
measures. Finally, the positive measures to control
the disease have been summarized in the conclusion
section.