Dynamics of the COVID-19: Comparison between the theoretical predictions and real data, and Relations to be satisfied for returning to normal life

We propose a realistic model for the evolution of the COVID-19 We propose a set of differential equations governing the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic subject to the lockdown and quarantine measures, which takes into account the time-delay for recovery or death processes. The dynamic equations for the entire process are derived by adopting a “kinetic-type reactions” approach. More specifically, the lockdown and the quarantine measures are modelled by some kind of inhibitor reactions where susceptible and infected individuals can be trapped into inactive states. The dynamics for the recovered people is obtained by accounting people who are only traced back to hospitalised infected people. To get the evolution equation we take inspiration from the Michaelis- Menten’s enzyme-substrate reaction model (the so-called “MM reaction”) where the enzyme is associated to the available hospital beds, the “substrate” to the infected people, and the “product” to the recovered people, respectively. In other words, everything happens as if the hospitals beds act as a catalyzer in the hospital recovery process. Of course, in our case the reverse MM reactions has no sense in our case and, consequently, the kinetic constant is equal to zero. Finally, the O.D.E.s for people tested positive to COVID-19 is simply modelled by the following kinetic scheme S+I=> 2I with I=> R or I=> D, with S, I, R, and D denoting the compartments Susceptible, Infected, Recovered, and Deceased people, respectively. The resulting “kinetic-type equations” provide the O.D.E.s, for elementary “reaction steps”, describing the number of the infected people, the total number of the recovered people previously hospitalised, subject to the lockdown and the quarantine measure, and the total number of deaths. The model foresees also the second wave of Infection by Coronavirus. The tests carried out on real data for USA, Germany, France, Italy, Belgium, and Luxembourg confirmed the correctness of our model. The theoretical mathematical relations about the descending phase provide valuable information about the duration of the COVID-19 in a given Country, especially when, and if, it will be possible to return to normal life.

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