Reduced Social Distancing and Face Mask Wearing at Massive Soccer-Related Gatherings Did Not Affect Daily COVID-19 Infections in Argentina
Main Article Content
Abstract
AIMS. To determine the contribution of social distancing and face mask wearing in the prevention of COVID-19 infections in Argentina.
METHODS. Attendance to the funeral of ex-soccer star Diego Maradona was estimated by the area occupied by the mourners and their density. The people congregated to celebrate the America's Cup victory was deduced mainly from TV ratings. The proportion of individuals wearing or not face masks was calculated from photographs taken at both events. The COVID-19 epidemiological data used was released by the Argentinean Ministry of Health from March 3rd 2020 to August 31st 2021.
RESULTS. We estimated that Maradona's funeral was attended by approximately 250,000 mourners. On the other hand, approximately 5.084.000 followed by television the America’s cup final in Buenos Aires alone. Extrapolating to the whole country suggests that over 4 million individuals congregated in person to celebrate the victory. The percentage of individuals not wearing face masks at the funeral was 54.0% ± 5.2 % and at the soccer victory celebrations 84.5 % ± 6.9 %, both estimates with a confidence of 99%. Daily COVID-19 infections in Buenos Aires remained at less than 5,000 per day during 30 days before- as well as during 24 days following-the funeral. New infections in Argentina remained less than 21,000 during 10 days before as well as 30 days following the soccer cup celebrations.
CONCLUSIONS. Considering that SARS-CoV-2 median incubation is 5.1 days, the time periods following Maradona’s funeral and the America Soccer Cup celebrations provided ample time for COVID-19 to flare up if significant contagion would have proliferated amongst the crowds. The lack of an increase in COVID-19 infections after two independent and large gatherings with people in close proximity and limited wearing of face masks, contradicts any beneficial effect of social distancing and of mask wearing during the pandemic. These findings seem particularly important when considering that social distancing and mask wearing limited attendance to public events, negatively impacted commerce, burdening restaurants and many other businesses; and overall taxed society unnecessarily, according to the data presented here.
(A summary of some of these findings were presented at the European Society of Medicine Annual Meeting. August 04, 2022. Entitled: Unexpected effect of sunlight, the environment, and public health measures in the progression of COVID-19) https://esmed.org/video-detail/?id=86 )
Article Details
The Medical Research Archives grants authors the right to publish and reproduce the unrevised contribution in whole or in part at any time and in any form for any scholarly non-commercial purpose with the condition that all publications of the contribution include a full citation to the journal as published by the Medical Research Archives.
References
2. Argentine Government Bulletin. Duelo Nacional por la muerte de Diego Maradona. Decreto 936/2020. (National mourning for the death of Diego Maradona. Decree 936/2020). November 25, 2020 https://www.boletinoficial.gob.ar/detalleAviso/primera/5237540/20201125?busqueda=2&suplemento=1. Accessed November 25, 2020.
3. Olé magazine. Festejo nacional: el Obelisco copado y el pais feliz (National celebration: the Obelisk taken and the happy country). July 11, 2021. https://www.ole.com.ar/seleccion/festejo-argentina-campeon-obelisco-pais_0_27a7PGsWk.html. Accessed July 11, 2021
4. Cadena 3 website. Masivos festejos pese a las restricciones en todo el país (Massive festivities despite restrictions across the country). July 11, 2021. https://www.cadena3.com/noticia/copa-america-2021/masivos-festejos-pese-a-las-restricciones-en-todo-el-pais_297923. Accessed July 11, 2021
5. La Voz website. El centro de Córdoba, pura fiesta por el título de la selección en la Copa América (The center of Córdoba, pure party for the title of the team in the Copa América). July 11, 2021. https://www.lavoz.com.ar/deportes/futbol/el-centro-de-cordoba-pura-fiesta-por-el-titulo-de-la-seleccion-en-la-copa-america/. Accessed July 11, 2021
6. La Nación website. Argentina campeón: Así se festeja en todo el país el triunfo en el Maracaná (Argentina champion: This is how the triumph in the Maracana is celebrated throughout the country). July 11, 2021. https://www.lanacion.com.ar/deportes/argentina-campeon-asi-se-festeja-en-todo-el-pais-el-triunfo-en-el-maracana-nid11072021/. Accessed July 11, 2021
7. El título de Argentina tras 28 años se festejó en las calles de Mar del Plata (The title of Argentina after 28 years was celebrated in the streets of Mar del Plata). July 11, 2021. https://quedigital.com.ar/deportes/el-titulo-de-argentina-tras-28-anos-se-festeja-en-las-calles-de-mar-del-plata/ . Accessed July 11, 2021
8. Argentinian Ministry of Health: Información Epidemiológica (Epidemiologic Information). 2020. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/salud/coronavirus-COVID-19/sala-situacion. Accessed July 11, 2021
9. John's Hopkins' Center for System Sciences and Engineering. Coronavirus Statistics. Stats real time. 2020. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/argentina. Accessed June 14, 2021.
10. WHO recommendations: Use of masks. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/question-and-answers-hub/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-masks
11. Medalia, Check Market. Sample size calculator. 2021.
https://www.checkmarket.com/sample-size-calculator/. Accessed June 20, 2021
12. Kantar Ibope Media. 2021. http://www.ibope.com.ec/ibopetime/views/rating.php. Accessed July 11, 2021.
13. Infobae.com. Miles de personas continúan en el centro porteño para despedir a Diego Maradona en Casa Rosada (Thousands of people continue in downtown Buenos Aires to say goodbye to Diego Maradona at Casa Rosada). [Text in Spanish]. Available online at: https://www.infobae.com/politica/2020/11/26/el-ultimo-adios-a-diego-maradona-la-despedida-intima-de-la-familia-y-como-sera-el-velatorio-abierto-al-publico-en-la-casa-rosada/ Accessed 26 2020 Nov 2020
14. Gonzalez D. DW com. Entre el distanciamiento y el duelo: masivo y caótico homenaje a Maradona (Between distancing and mourning: massive and chaotic tribute to Maradona). 2020. https://www.dw.com/es/entre-el-distanciamiento-y-el-duelo-masivo-y-ca%C3%B3tico-homenaje-a-maradona/a-55742528. Accessed October 26, 2020
15. Cornejo J. Télam.com.ar. Covid-19: ¿Segunda o tercera ola? (Covid-19: ¿Second or third wave?) (Text in Spanish) Available from: https://www.telam.com.ar/notas/202105/553157-covid-19-segunda-o-tercera-ola.html
(last accessed 5 May 2021).
16. Ministry of Health of Argentina. [Internet]. Estadisticas Vitales. Informacion Basica (Vital Statistics. Basic information) [Text in spanish]. Serie 5 Num 62. 2018. ISSN: 1668-9054 Serie 5 Número 62, http://www.deis.msal.gov.ar/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Serie5Nro62.pdf (2019, accessed 25 May 2020)
17. Lauer SA, Grantz KH, Bi Q, et al. The Incubation Period of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) From Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases: Estimation and Application. 2020. Ann. Intern. Med. 172(9):577-582. doi: 10.7326/M20-0504.
18. Argentine Government Bulletin. Plan estratégico para la vacunación contra Covid-19 en la República Argentina. Boletin Oficial de Gobierno. Resolución 2883/2020 (Strategic plan for vaccination against Covid-19 in the Argentine Republic). Resolution 2883/2020. https://www.boletinoficial.gob.ar/detalleAviso/primera/239326/20201230. Accesses December 29, 2020.
19. Datos macro. Economy and Bussiness website. 2021.
https://datosmacro.expansion.com/otros/coronavirus-vacuna/argentina. Accessed May 31, 2021.
20. Sagripanti J-L and Aquilano DR. Progression of COVID-19 in six South American countries with different vaccination coverage. Med. Res. Arch. 2022:10, Issue 3. https://esmed.org/MRA/mra/article/view/2723/193546052. Accessed: Jan 3, 2023.
21. Mandavilli A. WHO finally endorses masks to prevent coronavirus transmission. 2020. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/05/health/coronavirus-masks-who.html.
Accessed December 22, 2022
22. Howard J, Huang , Li Z, Tufekci Z, Zdimal V, van der Westhuizen H-M, von Delft A, Price A, Fridman L, Tang L-H, Tang V, Watson GL, Bax CE, Shaikh R, Questier F, Hernandez D, Chu LF, Ramirez CM, and Rimoin AW. An evidence review of face masks against COVID-
19. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021:118(4). e2014564118. Published online Jan 11, 2021. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2014564118PMCID: PMC7848583 PMID: 33431650
23. Li Y, Liang M, Gao L, Ayaz Ahmed M, Uy JP, Cheng C, Zhou Q, Sun C. Face masks to prevent transmission of COVID-19: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Infect Control. 2021:49(7):900-906. doi: 10.1016/j.ajic.2020.12.007. Epub 2020 Dec 19.PMID: 33347937
24. Matuschek C, Moll F, Fangerau H, Fischer JC, Zänker K, van Griensven M, Schneider M, Kindgen-Milles D, Knoefel WT, Lichtenberg A, Tamaskovics B, Djiepmo-Njanang FJ, Budach W, Corradini S, Häussinger D, Feldt T, Jensen B, Pelka R, Orth K, Peiper M, Grebe O, Maas K, Gerber PA, Pedoto A, Bölke E, Haussmann. Face masks: benefits and risks during the COVID-19 crisis. J.Eur J Med Res. 2020:25(1):32. doi: 10.1186/s40001-020-00430-5.PMID: 32787926
25. Raymond JR. The Great Mask Debate: A Debate That Shouldn't Be a Debate at All.
WMJ. 2020:119(4):229-239.PMID: 33428832
26. Wright, P.F. and Webster, R.G. Orthomyxoviruses, in Fields Virology. Vol 1. Fourth Edition, 2001:47, 1533-1579. Knipe, D.M. and Howley, P.M. Eds. Lippincott Williams & Wilkins. Philadelphia.
27. Sabin AB. Properties and behavior of orally administered attenuated poliovirus vaccine. 1957. JAMA 164, 1216-1223.PMID: 13438685 DOI: 10.1001/jama.1957.62980110008008
Available online at https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/13438685/
28. Wu L. T., A Treatise on Pneumonic Plague (League of Nations, Health Organization) 1926: 373–398.
29. Goh LG, Ho T and Phua KH, Wisdom and western science: The work of Dr Wu Lien-Teh. Asia Pac. J. Publ. Health 1987:1, 99–109.
30 Textbook in Military Medicine. Part I. Medical aspects of chemical and biological warfare. Zajtchuk, R andBellamy, RF editors. Office of the Surgeon General,Washington, D.C.Textbook in Military Medicine. Part I. Medical aspects of chemical and biological warfare. Zajtchuk, R and Bellamy, RF editors. Office of the Surgeon General, Washington, D.C.
31. Leffler CT, Ing E, Lykins JD, Hogan MC, McKeown CA and Grzybowski A. Association of country-wide coronavirus mortality with demographics, testing, lockdowns, and public wearing of masks. Am. J. Trop. Med. Hyg. 2020:103, 2400–2411
32. Lyu W and Wehby GL. Community use of face masks and COVID-19: Evidence from a natural experiment of state mandates in the US. Health Aff. 2020:39, 1419–1425.
33. Brainard J, Jones N, Lake I, Hooper L and Hunter PR. Facemasks and similar barriers to prevent respiratory illnesses such as COVID-19: a rapid systemic review. medRxiv. Preprint posted online April 6, 2020. Accessed December 24, 2023. https://www.medrxiv.org/ content/10.1101/2020.04.01.20049528v1?ijkey=70541201fc517d1bc72e3f30e58d0ae7a871 9e10&keytype2=tf_ipsecsha. doi:10.1101/2020.04.01.20049528
34. Sagripanti, JL. Unexpected effect of sunlight, the environment, and public health measures in the progression of COVID-19. Video Presentation. European Society of Medicine Annual Meeting. COVID-19 Session. August 04, 2022. https://esmed.org/video-detail/?id=86
35. Fischer JB, Kobayashi Frisk L, Scholkmann F, Delgado-Mederos R, Mayos M and Durduran T. Cerebral and systemic physiological effects of wearing face masks in young adults
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021:118(41):e2109111118. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2109111118. PMID: 34607955. PMCID: PMC8522266 DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2109111118
36. Stutt RO, Retkute R, Bradley M, Gilligan CA and Colvin J. A modeling framework to assess the likely effectiveness of facemasks in combination with ‘lock-down’in managing the COVID-19 pandemic. Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 2020:476(2238):20200376. doi: 10.1098/rspa.2020.0376
37. Kai D, Goldstein GP, Morgunov A, Nangalia V and Rotkirch A. Universal masking is urgent in the COVID-19 pandemic: SEIR and agent based models, empirical validation, policy recommendations. arXiv:2004.13553v1. Accessed April 22, 2020.
38. Tian L, Li X, Qi F, Tang QY, Tang V, Liu J, Li Z, Cheng X, Shi Y, Liu H and Tang LH.. Calibrated intervention and containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. arXiv:2003.07353v4. Accesed April 2, 2020.
39. Hatzius J, Struyven D and Rosenbery I. Face masks and GDP.
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/pages/face-masks-and-gdp.html. Accessed July 3, 2020
40. Fisman DN, Greer AL and Tuite AR. Brief research report: Bidirectional impact of imperfect mask use on reproduction number of COVID-19: A next generation matrix approach. Infect. Dis. Model. 2020:5, 405–408
41. Yan J, Guha S, Hariharan P and Myers M. Modeling the effectiveness of respiratory protective devices in reducing influenza outbreak. Risk Anal. 2019:39, 647–661
42. Ngonghala CN, Iboi E, Eikenberry S, Scotch M, Mac Intyre CR, Bonds MH and Gumel AB. Mathematical assessment of the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on curtailing the 2019 novel coronavirus. Math. Biosci. 2020:1, 108364
43. McNulty M. Avon lands 33 million mask contract from US. 2014.
https://www.rubbernews.com/article/20140707/NEWS/306309997/avon-lands-33-million-mask-contract-from-u-s. Accessed July 11, 2021.
44. Army protection website. Avon Protection has received an order from US Department of Defense for M50 protection mask 11003161. 2016. https://www.armyrecognition.com/march_2016_global_defense_security_news_industry/avon_protection_has_received_an_order_from_us_department_of_defense_for_m50_protection_mask_11003161.html . Accessed May 25, 2021
45. Zajtchuck R and Bellamy RF. Textbook of Military Medicine. Part I. Medical aspects of chemical and biological warfare. 1997. Office of the Surgeon General. Washington. D.C.)ESTE es el libro complete)
46. Ben-David A and Sagripanti, J-L. Regression Model for Estimating Inactivation of Microbial Aerosols by Solar Radiation. Photochemistry and Photobiology. 2013:89, 995-999. https://doi.org/10.1111/php.12060.
47. Reiling J. Dissemination of bacteria from mouth during speaking coughing and otherwise. 2000. J. Am. Med. Assoc. 284, 156.
48. Sagripanti, J-L.Seasonal Effect of Sunlight on COVID-19 among Countries with and without Lock-Downs. Open Journal of Epidemiology, 2021;11:303–25
https://www.scirp.org/journal/paperinformation.aspx?paperid=111464
49. Ferguson NM, Laydon D, Nedjati-Gilani G, Imai N, Ainslie K, Baguelin M, Bhatia S, Boonyasiri A, Cucunubá Z, Cuomo-Dannenburg G, DigheA , Dorigatti I, Fu H, Gaythorpe K, Green W, Hamlet A, Hinsley W, Okell LC, van Elsland S, Thompson H, Verity R, Volz E, Wang H, Wang Y, Walker PGT, Walters C, Winskill P, Whittaker C, Donnelly CA, Riley S and Ghani AZ. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID19 mortality and healthcare demand. 2020. Rep. 9, The Royal Society. https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf
50. Sagripanti, J-L. Prestige Does not Bring Truth. How Apocalyptic Predictions May Have Altered the Natural Evolution of COVID-19. CBRNe World, UK, August 2020:40-43.
51. de Souza Melo A, da Penha Sobral AIG, Marinho MLM, Duarte GB, Vieira AA, Sobral MFF. The impact of social distancing on COVID-19 infections and deaths. Trop Dis Travel Med Vaccines. 2021 May 4;7(1):12. doi: 10.1186/s40794-021-00137-3.PMID: 33941286.
52. Liu H, Chen C, Cruz-Cano R, Guida JL, Lee M. Public Compliance With Social Distancing Measures and SARS-CoV-2 Spread : A Quantitative Analysis of 5 States. Public Health Rep. 2021:136(4):475-482. doi: 10.1177/00333549211011254. Epub 2021 Apr 28.PMID: 33909541.
53. Sathyamoorthy AJ, Patel U, Paul M, Savle Y, Manocha D. COVID surveillance robot: Monitoring social distancing constraints in indoor scenarios. PLoS One. 2021:16(12):e0259713. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0259713. eCollection 2021.PMID: 34851982 ,
54. Sagripanti, J-L and Lytle CD (2020) Estimated Inactivation of Coronaviruses by Solar Radiation with Special Reference to COVID-19. Photochemistry and Photobiology. 2020:96, 731-737. https://doi.org/10.1111/php.13293
55. Chaudhry R, Dranitsaris G, Mubashir T, Bartoszko J and Riaziet S. A Country Level Analysis Measuring the Impact of Government Actions, Country Preparedness and Socioeconomic Factors on COVID-19 Mortality and Related Health Outcomes. eClinical Medicine, 2020:25. Article ID: 100464.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(20)30208-X/fulltext
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eclinm.2020.100464
56. Kuhbandner C and Homburg S. Commentary: Estimating the Effects of Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions on COVID-19. Frontiers in Medicine. November 5, 2020
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmed.2020.580361
57. Colbeck I and Lazaridis M. Aerosol Science. Technology and Applications. 2014. John Wiley & Sons. United Kingdom
58. Conejero I, Nobile B, Olié E and Courtet P. How Does COVID-19 Affect the Neurobiology of Suicide? Curr Psychiatry Rep. 2021:23(4):16. doi: 10.1007/s11920-021-01227-x.PMID: 33660116
59. Zhang J, Lu H, Zeng H, Zhang S, Du Q, Jiang T and Du B. The differential psychological distress of populations affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Brain, Behavior, and Immunity. 2020;87: 49–50. 10.1016/j.bbi.2020.04.031.
60. Zhou J, Liu L, Xue P, Yang X and Tang X. Mental Health Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak in China. American Journal of Psychiatry. 2020;177(7):574–575. 10.1176/appi.ajp.2020.20030304.
61. Hao F, Tan W, Jiang L, Zhang L, Zhao X, Zou Y, Hu Y, Luo X, Jiang X, McIntyre RS, TranB, Sun J, Zhang Z, Ho R, Ho C and Tam W. Do psychiatric patients experience more psychiatricsymptoms during COVID-19 pandemic and lockdown? A case-control study with service and research implications for immunopsychiatry. Brain Behav Immun. 2020:87, 100-106.
2020. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0889159120306267.
62. Yang Y, Li W, Zhang Q, Zhang L, Cheung T and Xiang Y-T. Mental health services for older adults in China during the COVID-19 outbreak. Lancet Psychiatry Elsevier. 2020;7:e19.
63. Tokatly Latzer I, Leitner Y and Karnieli-Miller O. Core experiences of parents of children with autism during the COVID-19 pandemic lockdown. Autism. 2021:4,1047-1059. doi: 10.1177/136
64. Zhang W, Gao F, Gross J, Shrum LJ and Hayne H. How does social distancing during COVID-19 affect negative moods and memory? Memory. 2021:1,90-97. doi: 10.1080/09658211.2020.1857774. Epub 2020 Dec 15.PMID: 33320027
65. Bzdok D and Dunbar RIM. The Neurobiology of Social Distance. Trends Cogn Sci. 2020:24(9),717-733. doi: 10.1016/j.tics.2020.05.016. Epub 2020 Jun 3.PMID: 32561254