The Unequal Impact of COVID-19 Across Countries

Abstract

We evaluate the effects of COVID-19 across countries. Where income is low, fewer jobs can be performed from home, hospital capacity is lower, and enduring long periods with no income is harder. On the other hand, these countries have younger populations, making death less likely. To study the overall effect, we extend the SIR model in 1, with a subsistence level of consumption, work-at-home possibilities, hospital capacity, and a death rate that depends on the age distribution. A 1% lower income increases infections by 326 people per million, and increases the fall of consumption by 0.03%, with no effects on death. Using Google data, we confirm that traffic around workplaces has fallen more in rich countries. Social distancing policies do not affect infections inequality. A better strategy would consist of loans to finance imports. Loans reduce infections and recessions across the board, with greater impact on low-income countries. Optimal loans are much cheaper in low-income countries, ranging from a present value of $84 per capita in Ecuador to almost $5,000 in Ireland.