The Impact of COVID-19 Vaccination on Food Spending Behavior in the United States
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Abstract
The U.S. government’s efforts in response to the pandemic included the development, manufacturing, and distribution of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines. By the end of 2020, the Food and Drug Administration issued Emergency Use Authorizations for the Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 and the Moderna COVID-19 vaccine. Following this authorization, on December 14, 2020, each State received allocations of vaccines and devised individual distribution plans. This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 vaccination on U.S. food spending at home and away from home in 2021 employing fixed-effects regression analysis on quarterly State-level data. The results reveal that higher vaccination rates—measured by the share of the population that is fully vaccinated—are associated with a decrease in food-at-home sales and an increase in food-away-from-home sales. Further analysis reveals nuanced shifts between full-service and limited-service restaurants, indicating increased sales at full-service establishments and decreased sales at limited-service ones, suggesting a trade-off effect between the two restaurant types. The results of this study provide valuable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders seeking to understand the heterogenous impacts of vaccinations on food spending.
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