Cancer mortality in the USA and atmospheric nuclear weapons test fallout ratio. Identifying the principal origin of the global cancer epidemic
Main Article Content
Abstract
Recent advances in epidemiological analysis of the effects of radioactive contamination have raised questions over the security of current radiation risk models. One outstanding question relates to the effects of atmospheric nuclear weapons tests and the fallout which peaked in 1959-63. Effects on cancer, a late genetic disease, are investigated here by employing a metric R which divides the rate in high fallout and low fallout States of the USA. An allocation of the two groups is based on rainfall and supported by measurements of Strontium-90 in baby teeth. Results from comparing cancer mortality in Whites for High fallout States AR/KY/LA/MS and TN with low fallout States AZ/CA/ NM reveals a highly significant fallout cohort effect peaking in those born in 1955-1964 in all 10-year birth cohort age groups. The ratio was calculated for 10-year groups for deaths in 1969, 1979, 1989, 1999, 2009 and 2019. Cancer mortality ratio effects increased with age. In the oldest 10-year group studied, 55-64, in 2019 the Excess Risk for those born in 1955-64 was 52% greater in the high fallout regions ERR =1.52; 95% CI 1.48, 1.57; p <0.00000000. For the 45-54 group in 2019 ERR = 1.42; 95% CI 1.35, 1.50; p < 0.00000000. For the 34-45 ERR = 1.27; 95% CI 1.15, 1.40; p<0.000001. Arguably the results identify the main cause of the cancer epidemic which began in the 1980s.
Article Details
How to Cite
BUSBY, Christopher.
Cancer mortality in the USA and atmospheric nuclear weapons test fallout ratio. Identifying the principal origin of the global cancer epidemic.
Medical Research Archives, [S.l.], v. 12, n. 11, nov. 2024.
ISSN 2375-1924.
Available at: <https://esmed.org/MRA/mra/article/view/5859>. Date accessed: 12 dec. 2024.
doi: https://doi.org/10.18103/mra.v12i11.5859.
Section
Research Articles
The Medical Research Archives grants authors the right to publish and reproduce the unrevised contribution in whole or in part at any time and in any form for any scholarly non-commercial purpose with the condition that all publications of the contribution include a full citation to the journal as published by the Medical Research Archives.
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39. Rosenthal HL, Austin S, O Niell S. (1964) Incorporation of fallout Strontium90 in deciduous incisors and foetal bones. Nature, vol. 4945, pp. 615-616
40. Mangano J, Gaus KS, Mousseau TA, Ketterer M (2023) Strontium-90 in baby teeth as a basis for estimating US cancer deaths from nuclear weapons fallout. International Journal of Social Determinants of Health and Health Services. 1-11.
41. Darby, S. C., Olsen, J. H., Doll, R., Thakrar, B., de Nully Brown, P., Storm, H. H., Barlow, L., Langmark, F., Teppo, L., and Tulinius, H. (1992), `Trends in Childhood Leukemia in the Nordic Countries in Relation to Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing', British Medical Journal, vol. 304, pp. 1005-9.
42. Busby Christopher. (2016) Letter to the Editor on “The Hiroshima Nagasaki survivor studies. Discrepancies between results and general perception.” By Bernard R Jordan. Genetics. Vol. 204, no.4, pp. 1627-1629
https://www.nature.com/scitable/topicpage/genetic-regulation-of-cancer-891/
2. Muller HJ. (1950) Radiation damage to the genetic material. AmSci., 38, pp 32-39 and 38, pp. 399-425.
3. Jolly J.C (2002) Linus Pauling and the Scientific debate about fallout hazards. Endeavour vol 26, no.4, pp. 149-153
4. Sakharov A. (1958) Radioactive Carbon from Nuclear Explosion and Non-threshold Biological Effects, Soviet Journal Atomic Energy, vol.4, pp. 757–62. Following Sakharov’s death in 1989, the U.S. Government translation was reprinted in Science and Global Security (1990) vol.1, pp. 175–87. https://scienceandglobalsecurity.org/archive/1990/01/radioactive_carbon_from_nuclea_1.html
5. Wallace B, Dobzhansky T. (1959) Radiation, Genes and Man. New York: Holt
6. Sternglass, E.J (1971) Environmental Radiation and Human Health, in Proceedings of the Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, ed. J.Neyman Berkeley, Calif.: University Press
7. Eisenbud M and Gesell T (1997) Environmental Radioactivity San Diego: Academic Press
8. NCRP (1987) Exposure of the population of the United States and Canada from natural background radiation. NRCP Report 94, Bethesda MD: NCRP
9. Whyte, R.K (1992) `First Day Neonatal Mortality since 1935: A Re-examination of the Cross Hypothesis’, British Medical Journal, vol. 304, pp. 343-6.
10. Busby, C. C. (1995), Wings of Death: Nuclear Pollution and Human Health Aberystwyth: Green Audit
11. Busby C (2017) Radiochemical Genotoxicity Risk and Absorbed Dose. Res Rep Toxi. Vol.1 No.1:1 https://www.imedpub.com/articles/radiochemical-genotoxicity-risk-and-absorbed-dose.php?aid=20305
12. Koerblein A (2023) Statistical modelling of trends in infant mortality after atmospheric nuclear weapons testing. PloS, vol. 1 18 (5) e0284482
13. leVann LJ (1963) Congenital abnormalities in children born in Alberta in 1961: a survey and a hypothesis. Can. Med. Assoc. J, vo. 89, pp. 120-126
14. Bentham G and R. Haynes, (1995) ‘Childhood leukemia in Great Britain and fallout from nuclear weapons testing.’ Journal of Radiological Protection, vol. 15/1, pp. 37-43.
15. Archer, V. E. (1987), `Association of Nuclear Fallout with Leukemia in the United States', Archives of Environmental Health, vol.42, pp. 263-71.
16. Luning, K. G., Frolen, H., Nelson, A., and Ronnback, C. (1963), `Genetic Effects of Strontium-90 Injected into Male Mice', Nature, No 4864 197: 304-5.
17. Schmitz-Feuerhake, Busby C, Pflugbeil P (2016) Genetic Radiation Risks-A Neglected Topic in the Low Dose Debate. Environmental Health and Toxicology. 31 Article ID e2016001. http://dx.doi.org/10.5620/eht.e2016001.
18. Busby C (2006) Wolves of Water: A study constructed from atomic radiation, morality, epidemiology, bias, philosophy and death. Aberystwyth: Green Audit
19. Zhao Jianhui, Xu Liyang, Sun Jing et al (2023) Global trends inincidence, death, burden and risk factors of early onset cancer from 1990 to 2019. BMJ Oncology, vol. 2; e000049
20. Doll, R. and Peto, R. (1981), The Causes of Cancer, Oxford: University Press
21. Busby, C. (1994), `Increase in Cancer in Wales Unexplained', British Medical Journal, vol. 308: 268
22. ICRP (2007) International Commission on Radiological Protection. The 2007 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP-Publication 103 Oxford: Pergamon
23. ICRP 60. (1990) International Commission on Radiological Protection 1990 Recommendations of the International Commission on Radiological Protection. ICRP Publication 60. ICRP 21 (1-3), 1991.
24. Busby Christopher (2013). Aspects of DNA Damage from Internal Radionuclides, New Research Directions in DNA Repair, Prof. Clark Chen (Ed.), ISBN: 978-953-51-1114-6, InTech, DOI: 10.5772/53942. Available from:
http://www.intechopen.com/books/new-research-directions-in-dna-repair/aspects-of-dna-damage-from-internal-radionuclides
25. Busby Christopher (2022) Ionizing radiation and cancer—the failure of the risk model. Cancer Treatment and Research Communications (invited review). Vol 31, 100565. DOI https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ctarc.2022.100565
26. Busby Christopher and Mangano Joseph J (2017) There’s a world going on underground—infant mortality and fracking in Pennsylvania. Journal of Environmental Protection, vol8 no 4, doi: 10.4236/jep.2017.84028
27. UNSCEAR 2000 (2000) Sources and Effects of Atomic Radiation. Vol 1: Sources. New York: United Nations.
28. CERRIE (2004) Report of the Committee Examining Radiation Risk from Internal Emitters (CERRIE) Chilton, UK: National Radiological Protection Board
29. Fliess J R (2002) Statistical methods for rates and proportions. New Jersey: Wiley Interscience
30. ECRR (2010) Busby C, Yablolov AV, Schmitz Feuerhake I, Bertell R and Scott Cato M. The 2010 Recommendations of the European Committee on Radiation Risk. The Health Effects of Ionizing Radiation at Low Doses and Low Dose Rates. Brussels: ECRR; Aberystwyth Green Audit
31. Federal Research Council (1962) Health implications of fallout from nuclear weapons testing through 1961. Report No 3. Washington USA: Government Printing Office
32. Simon SL and Bouville A (2015) Health effects of nuclear weapons testing. The Lancet, vol. 386, pp. 407-409.
33. Busby Christopher (2021) The Hiroshima A-Bomb Black Rain and the Lifespan Study; a Resolution of the Enigma, Cancer Investigation, DOI: 10.1080/07357907.2021.1977818
34. Busby C (2023) Evidence that nuclear atmospheric test fallout is responsible. Response to: Zhao Jianhui, Xu Liyang, Sun Jing et al (2023) Global trends inincidence, death, burden and risk factors of early onset cancer from 1990 to 2019. BMJ Oncology, 2; e000049
https://bmjoncology.bmj.com/content/evidence-nuclear-atmospheric-test-fallout-responsible
35. Annual Reports (Medical) of the Registrar General for England and Wales. London: HMSO
36. Office for National Statistics. Ser. DH2. Mortality Statistics Cause. Review of the Registrar General on Deaths by Cause, Sex and Age (annually). London: ONS
37. UNSCEAR 2000 (2000) Sources and Effects of Atomic Radiation. Vol 2: Effects. New York: United Nations.
38. Rosenthal HL, Le Cam LM, Neyman J and Scott EL (1972) Implication of environmental Sr90 accumulation in teeth and bone of children. in Proceedings of the Sixth Berkeley Symposium on Mathematical Statistics and Probability, ed. J.Neyman (Berkeley, Calif.: University Press)
39. Rosenthal HL, Austin S, O Niell S. (1964) Incorporation of fallout Strontium90 in deciduous incisors and foetal bones. Nature, vol. 4945, pp. 615-616
40. Mangano J, Gaus KS, Mousseau TA, Ketterer M (2023) Strontium-90 in baby teeth as a basis for estimating US cancer deaths from nuclear weapons fallout. International Journal of Social Determinants of Health and Health Services. 1-11.
41. Darby, S. C., Olsen, J. H., Doll, R., Thakrar, B., de Nully Brown, P., Storm, H. H., Barlow, L., Langmark, F., Teppo, L., and Tulinius, H. (1992), `Trends in Childhood Leukemia in the Nordic Countries in Relation to Fallout from Nuclear Weapons Testing', British Medical Journal, vol. 304, pp. 1005-9.
42. Busby Christopher. (2016) Letter to the Editor on “The Hiroshima Nagasaki survivor studies. Discrepancies between results and general perception.” By Bernard R Jordan. Genetics. Vol. 204, no.4, pp. 1627-1629