Factors that Caused the Inter-state Variations in COVID-19 Infections and Death in India

Abstract

The study investigates into the factors responsible for the variation in COVID-19 infections and death rates reported across Indian states. The analysis considered the following state-wise data: proportion of people living in cities with population density higher than 5,000 persons per sq. km, average climatic conditions, health infrastructure per thousand population, per capita Net State Domestic Product, and proportion of aged (above 60) people identified on the basis of an extensive review of the international scientific literature published on the pandemic, covering both COVID-19 infections and mortality. As regards COVID-19 infections, the proportion of people living in densely populated areas (above 5,000 persons per sq. km), per capita Net State Domestic Product (NSDP), proportion of aged people and climate explained the variation across states. While the first three variables had a positive influence on the infection rates, incidence of infections increased from hot & arid climate to cold & humid climate. As regards the deaths due to COVID-19, in addition to these three factors, health infrastructure per unit population was found to affect, with its impact on COVID-19 related mortality being negative. But the effect of the factors such as the proportion of aged people (above 60 years), the per capita Net State Domestic Product and the proportion of population living in densely populated areas on COVID-19 induced mortality was positive. Like in the case of COVID-19 infections, the chances of mortality increased from hot & arid regions to cold & humid regions.